The spatial epidemiology and environmental ecology

of Anthrax in Kazakhstan

Abstract  (Click HERE to return to ongoing research)

The LSU WHOCC has been working cooperatively with the Kazak Science Center for Quarantine and Zoonotic Disease (KSCQZD) since 2004 to develop a nationwide GIS-based surveillance and spatial database system for anthrax, Bacillus anthracis.  This project, funded through the U.S. Civilian Research and Development Foundation, is designed to develop a collaborative team to evaluate the livestock and human risk factors for anthrax infection in Kazakhstan.  Since June of 2004 we have developed a geospatial database of historical livestock and human cases that can be used to develop spatial models of disease distribution and disease spread.  These data are currently analyzed using local spatial clustering techniques, such as the Gi*(d) and the Local Moran’s I.  Additionally, KSCQZD and LSU WHOCC are working with Dr. David Rogers, of Oxford University, to develop one of the first predictive models of Bacillus anthracis distribution for Kazakhstan.

 

A second major goal for this project is to develop a (near) real-time, web-based GIS surveillance system for future anthrax outbreaks in Kazakhstan.  We are working to build an interactive, online database and web map interface, where cases can be mapped as quickly as they are entered into the database.  This will allow Kazakh scientists, public health officials, and U.S. collaborators to all review and visualize outbreaks quickly and effectively, with hopes of improving outbreak response and our understanding of disease’s ecology.

A snapshot of the livestock cases from the mid-1930’s to early 2004. 

A snapshot of  hotspots for anthrax cases across the country using the Kernel Density Estimation technique.

© LSU WHOCC 2005